Saturday, October 8, 2011

Eurozone banking collapse: Dexia is gone, who’s next?

October 7, 2011 • 10:09AM

The Dexia bank headquarters in Brussels

(Nouvelle Solidarité) — To cover up the fact that the giant Belgo-French Dexia Bank went bankrupt on October 5, it was decided to avoid the word “bankruptcy” and call it “organized break-up.” Yesterday, when shares dropped dramatically by 17.24% the Belgian government decided to suspend their quotation on the Brussels stock market till Monday. Dexia’s motto was “short term has no future.” The bank plays a key role in helping some US states and cities raise funds. Concerns about its health have caused their borrowing costs to rise.

Dexia was created in 1996 when Credit Local de France merged with Credit Communal de Belgique. The company combined France and Belgium's biggest municipal lenders providing finance for spending on schools, public transport, street lighting and other locally controlled budgets. The aim was to strengthen the business ahead of the euro's launch in 1999. The single currency's introduction was expected to increase competition across the bloc's banking sector. Over subsequent years, Dexia continued to expand. It took control of the Italian lender Crediop, Belgium's Artesia Banking Corporation, the Israeli bank Otzar Hashilton Hamekomi and Turkey's DenizBank. Trouble of Dexia started when it bought the US asset management and bond insurance unit, FSA which lost big with the subprime debacle. Close to bankruptcy, Dexia was saved in September 2008 with a 6.4 billion euro bailout by France, Belgium and Luxemburg.

Besides the vast amount of old “toxic assets” conserved in Dexia’s “legacy division”, today, what provoked collapse it’s the euro crisis. Dexia has 3.4 billion euros exposure to Greek government bonds. Analysts estimate it has a further 17.5 billion euros of exposure to sovereign debt issued by Italy, Spain, Portugal and other troubled eurozone economies.

Ironically, on July 15, Dexia passed the banking stress tests carried out by the European Banking Authority and announced in a press release: “2011 EU-wide stress test results: no need for Dexia to raise additional capital”. The problem is that the tests did not take into account a scenario in which Greece might default on its bonds. Dexia has written down the value some of its long-term Greek holdings by 21%. However, some speculate that creditors may ultimately have to absorb a 50-60% loss.

The other direct factor was that Dexia relied mostly on short-term funds, which are renewed on a rolling basis. But the access to those funds is no longer there because of market concerns about its exposure to the euro periphery and the requirement of higher collateral.

The main shareholder of Dexia, the largest Belgian corporation, is the French state institution Caisse des Dépôts et des Consignations (CDC) with 17.7%. Second largest is the Belgian Holding Communal (14.1%) which belongs to Belgian municipalities and regional governments. Tomorrow the management will meet tomorrow to decide on the sale of the different components of the bank.

Dexia Bank is a giant holding with five legs which are now cut off and sold separately to the most offering.

1) Dexia Banque International du Luxembourg (BIL), is a private bank with 12 billion euros of assets and some 40 agencies. Discussions have started with Qatar for a takeover. 2) Dexia Crédit Local (DCL), formerly the “Crédit Local” is the main source of financing of French municipalities and cities. They became notorious for their scheme of “toxic loans” with rates adjustable on exotic indexes. This part would be taken back directly by the French CDC. 3) Denizban is a real deposit bank in Turkey. The Russian Sberbank started exclusive talks with Dexia for a takeover. 4) Dexia Bank Belgique (DBB) is also a real commercial bank. Belgium announced they consider nationalizing it. Belgian citizens already pulled out 300 million euros in cash in what is the beginning of a bank run. 5) Dexia Asset Management (DAM), also for sale.

Once everything is sold, Dexia Bank as such, will remain stuck with 95 billion euros of “toxic assets” with a 13 year lifespan in short a “bad bank”. But Sarkozy wants to save it with French and Belgian state guarantees and have the Caisse des Dépots and Banque Postal, to take over the 95 billion of toxic junks of Dexia Municipal Agency (Dexma)! In short, the old monetarist trick of “privatizing profit and socializing losses.”

So far, as confirmed by inside sources, the Caisse des Dépôts is at war with Sarkozy and the Finance Ministry (Bercy) and refuses to bail out Dexia in fear of losing its own AAA rating. Former Finance Minister Laurent Fabius declared on Wednesday morning that such a state guarantee would affect France’s AAA rating. In an immediate response, the president of the Banque de France Christian Noyer, a staunch opponent of Glass-Steagall, said this was all untrue, since the European statistical agency Eurostat doesn’t consider such garantees “as debt” and therefore no consequences are to be feared. Noyer was rebuked by the rating agencies which declared that indeed they took into consideration such guarantees.

From the propaganda side, the financial media lies this to be “not a new Lehman Brothers” but only a “new Bear Sterns” whose failure should have provoked a recapitalization of all the banks to avoid more dramatic bankruptcies afterwards.
Link

Via: http://www.larouchepac.com/node/19751

2012財政預算案,100個重點

2012年財政預算案 2011-10-07 22:00


●推動投資:

1.開放17個服務業副領域

2.落實總值984億令吉的第二轉型藍圖

3.推動價值5千萬令吉以上的新計劃

4.公共與私人界(PPP)聯合管理25億令吉的“便利基金”(Dana Mudahcara)

5.發展價值9億780萬令吉的5個區域走廊(Wilayah Koridor)

6.60億令吉的特別振興配套

●刺激中小型企業:

7.總值20億令吉符合伊斯蘭法的中小型企業承擔基金――政府將承擔2%利潤

8.總值5億令吉,符合伊斯蘭法的中小型企業創新基金――政府將承擔2%的利潤

9.總值1億令吉的中小型企業重整基金(SME Revitalisation Fund),讓有關企業家重新發展生意

10.總值1千萬令吉的中小型企業緊急基金,以援助受天然災難影響的中小型企業

●激發創意及創新: (2012年-啟動創新的年份)

11.在學校及國立高等學府推行“滲透及發展創新計劃”

12.開發創新計劃以激發年輕人的新創意

13.推介1個馬來西亞發明獎勵

14.在媒體推行真實與紀錄片計劃

15.準備3千萬令吉的市場測試基金

16.商業化300項新智慧產權的產品或新科技,國民總收入預計300億令吉

17.舉辦全球創新論壇及亞洲經濟天使論壇。

●教育:

18.10億令吉的興建、提昇及維修特別基金

19.取消小學24令吉50仙及中學33令吉50仙的附加費

20.全國每名小學生,中一至中五的中學生每人可獲得100令吉的求學援助

21.在高等學府、預科班及中六學生求學的大馬學生可獲得每人200令吉的購書禮券

22.個人或公司捐助學校活動可獲得扣稅

●郊區轉型計劃:

23.推行10億令吉的郊區轉型計劃

24.成立郊區轉型中心作為服務交流中心,特別是在吉打、柔佛、沙巴及沙拉越。

25.設立1億令吉的專業服務基金讓專業群體借貸,利息為4%

26.在11個農業計劃地區實行1億1千100萬令吉的郊區大型提昇計劃

27.發展郊區的基本設施,包括水電供應、住家及道路,價值50億令吉

28.價值5億令吉的公共基本維修計劃

29.在沙巴及砂拉越實行水供分配計劃,以及水供系統設施,同時在園坵進行乾淨水供設施(價值5千萬令吉以銜接水管及給予家庭水費)

30.使銀行服務普及,遴選5千個國家銀行代理

31.郊區巴士服務

32.原住民福利―發展及遷移計劃

公務員調薪7至13%

●公共服務領域:

33.成立退出政策(Dasar pemisah/exit policy)

34.改善公務員的薪金架構:調薪7至13%、根據等級調高公務員的年薪,調幅從80令吉至320令吉

35.根據年資來提昇公務員計劃:等級48的老師-SSM(服務20年以上)、SBPA(16年以上)

36.提高退休年齡,從58歲提高至60歲

37.增加半個月的花紅或500令吉

38.提供進修援助,學士(2萬個)、碩士(5千個)及博士(500個)

39.士兵照顧計劃——提昇及維修軍營

●退休公務員者前合約公務員:

40.退休的政府公務員:享有退休金調整、落實每年調整2%退休金

41.給予3千令吉特別費用予在特別事務局及社會發展局的合約職員

42.支付3千令吉特別費用予曾經在緊急狀態保護國家安全的退伍警員或輔警、他們的遺孀或鰥夫

43.讓退休軍人參與特別培訓計劃,以便投身商界

●應付通膨及抒緩人民生活壓力:

44.月入3千令吉及以下的家庭,將獲得500令吉的現金援助

45.持續提供總額332億令吉的補貼、獎掖和援助

46.持續為低收入家庭提供20令吉的電費補貼

47.增建一個大馬商店,以為消費人提供比市價便宜40%的物品

48.在全國開設30間人民農產品市場

49.促銷一個大馬人民菜單

50.擴大園坵合約計劃範圍,讓4千500家農戶受惠

51.提供一個大馬人民福利計劃(KAR1SMA)

●人民房屋計劃:

52.“我的首間房屋計劃”――將提高夫婦貸款頂額,由22萬令吉增至40萬令吉

53.一個大馬人民房屋計劃(PR1MA)擴大範圍至巴生河流域以外的地方,有1千880個單位

54.通過伊斯蘭貸款條規,可借貸不超過60萬令吉購買先建後售房屋

55.在全國興建1萬5千個單位的人民房屋計劃

56.政府津貼一萬個單位的人民親善房屋計劃(Program Rumah Mesra),每間2萬令吉

57.漁民房屋特別基金將為漁民提供更舒適和居住條件更好的房屋

●認同樂齡人士的貢獻:

58.樂齡門診病人都能在所有政府醫院、診療所,包括“一個大馬診所”和牙科單位,獲得免費醫療服務

59.樂齡者使用輕快鐵和單軌火車服務,一律折扣50%

●優質醫療服務:

60.興建醫院,81所診療所,50間一個大馬診所

61.提昇布城醫院婦產部,以及吉隆坡中央醫院的水平

62.為醫護人員提供更彈性的工作時間表,提高夜班急召津貼,從現有的30令吉增至80令吉

●一個大馬人民信託計劃:

63.推行一個大馬人民信託計劃(SARA 1 Malaysia),預料有10萬個月入低過3千令吉的家庭受惠。這項投資提供具吸引力的回酬保證。

●提昇土著社會:

64.提供3億令吉的土著便利基金

65.引導1千100家有潛能的土著公司

66.鄉村發展及區域部將推動土著企業和承包商發展計劃

●減輕廉價德士業者和出租車負擔:

67.購買本地製造新德士者,可豁免100%國內稅和銷售稅

68.7年以上車齡德士的買賣和轉手,豁免退回國內稅和銷售稅

69.廢除私人擁有的廉價德士的路稅

70.購買本地製造的新德士可獲2%利息津貼

71.更換舊德士者獲援助——7至10年獲3千令吉,10年以上獲1千援助

72.廉價德士業者整體受惠額是7千560令吉

●全國法律援助資金:

73.為無能力付還高昂的律師費者提供免費的法律援助

●收留中心:

74.提供稱為ANJUNG SINGGAH的社會援助服務中心,為居無定所者提供臨時的保護

●認同和發揚婦女的角色:

75.提供適當的培訓計劃,吸引專業婦女重返職場

76.免費提供人乳頭瘤病毒(HPV)的疫苗注射服務——5千萬令吉

77.大馬計劃信託基金(AIM)將為企業家提供21億令吉的種族微型貸款

78.興建吉隆坡婦女和兒童醫院

●青年是未來的推動力:

79.政府成立My Creative Venture Capital風險投資公司,是鼓勵更多年輕人加入創意工業行列的公司。

80.一個大馬青年行動策略(SAY 1 Malaysia)。

81.全國增建150個室內足球場,以實現“一個地區,一個球場”的目標。

82.30個仿造草草場將設立泛光燈。

●提早為朝聖作登記:

83.允許通過公積金第二戶口款項提早進行朝聖登記。

稅務獎掖

●銀行、金融和投資領域:

84.為了吸引投資者選擇大馬為財務管理服務公司首要據點,投資者獲70%所得稅豁免,為期5年

85.繳付貸款利息可豁免預繳稅

86.貸款合約和服務合約豁免印花稅

87.發展吉隆坡國際金融中心享有的稅務獎掖配套,將包括所得稅全免,為期10年

88.擁有吉隆坡國際金融中心地位的公司,將獲貸款和服務合約豁免印花稅

89.從2012年開始發行伊斯蘭債券代理費可獲扣稅長達3年

90.非令吉伊斯蘭債券發行及交易所享有的豁免所得稅優惠,將延長3年

91.非企業和個人投資者在產業投資信託所作的投資所享有的10%特許經營稅收將延長5年

92.特許經營權經營者所承擔的特許經營權費用將獲得扣

93.特許經營權持有者進口油電混合車所享有的入口和國內稅豁免,將延長至2013年

●酒店業:

94.在半島投資建設全新的四星和五星級酒店,70%的收入可獲免稅,或60%的投資稅津貼,為期5年

●稅務津貼:

95.重新檢討產業盈利稅率(RPGT),以制止房地產的投機情況

96.豁免設計服務業高達70%的所得稅,長達5年

97.私立學校將享有稅務津貼,例如豁免高達70%盈利稅,或在5年內享有100%的資本開銷的稅務津貼

98.捐款予中小學,如國民中小學、國民型中小學、宗教學校或已註冊的宗教場所,將可獲得減稅

99.政府將為私人公司提供稅務優惠,以便讓私人公司強化高技能的人力資本發展,私人界給予實習生的津貼將享有2次的稅務回扣

100.私人界公積金及保險年金將享有稅務獎掖


【熱點新聞:2012年財政預算案】


转自:http://www.sinchew-i.com/sciWWW/node/244764?tid=783

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Greek debt tragedy hits markets again

04:46 AM Oct 04, 2011


ATHENS - World stock markets kicked off the fourth quarter on a dismal note as Greece's admission that it will miss its deficit target raised new doubts over a planned second bailout.

The news from Athens brought the spectre of a debt default even closer and weighed on talks among euro zone finance ministers in Luxembourg yesterday on the next steps to try to resolve the currency area's sovereign debt crisis.

About half an hour after the opening bell in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.5 per cent, extending Friday's 2.2 per cent loss. Late in Europe, London's FTSE was down 2 per cent, Germany's DAX was 2.8 per cent lower as Greece's ATHEX fell 2.9 per cent. Earlier, in Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slumped 4.4 per cent on heavy fund selling and Japan's Nikkei lost 1.8 per cent. China was closed for holidays.

The euro fell 0.5 per cent to US$1.3314 (S$1.74683), its lowest level since Jan 18 while gold jumped 2.1 per cent to US$1,657 an ounce. The draft budget sent to the Greek parliament yesterday showed this year's deficit would be 8.5 per cent of gross domestic product, much worse than the 7.6 per cent agreed in the bailout programme between Athens, the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that the 2012 fiscal targets would be met in absolute terms and Greece would have a primary surplus before debt service for the first time in many years. However, next year's deficit is projected to be 6.8 per cent of GDP, rather than the 6.5 per cent EU/IMF goal, because the economy is set to shrink by a further 2.5 per cent after a record 5.5 per cent contraction in 2011.

Deeper-than-forecast recession means public debt will be equivalent to 161.8 per cent of GDP this year, rising to 172.7 per cent next year, the highest in Europe.

Deputy Finance Minister Pantelis Oikonomou said the EU and IMF inspectors had "essentially concluded" negotiations to give Greece a crucial 8 billion euro instalment of aid to avert bankruptcy. The 17 euro zone ministers are set to decide on the funds at a special meeting on Oct 13, just days before Greece would run out of cash.


AGENCIES


Via: http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC111004-0000163/Greek-debt-tragedy-hits-markets-again

Administrative fees for work passes up

Posted: 03 October 2011 1146 hrs

Office workers in Singapore

SINGAPORE: Administrative fees for passes for foreigners to work in Singapore will be raised from December 1 this year.

The Manpower Ministry said it is increasing the rates for application and issuance of Employment Pass, S Pass and Work Permit with the aim of "full recovery of cost".

It said the rates were set substantially below cost when they were first introduced in 2005.

The increases are in line with the policy for the cost of public service to be borne by users of the service rather than taxpayers.

The biggest increase in work pass rates is for the issuance of Employment Pass for foreign professionals.

This will go up from S$30 a year to S$120 per transaction.

For skilled workers on S Pass, the rate goes up from S$30 a year to S$70 per transaction.

For unskilled foreign labour on work permit, the rate is still S$20 per transaction but with no subsidy for those who opt to be issued the pass online.

The Ministry said the S$20 subsidy in place since 2005 to encourage online submissions, will be withdrawn from December 1.

The application fee for all three types of work passes (Employment Pass, S Pass and Work Permit) will also go up from S$10 to S$20.

Application and issuance fees for other passes will also be adjusted.

The issuance fee for an EntrePass to start and operate a business for example will cost more; from S$30 per year to S$120 per transaction.


Via: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1156927/1/.html

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Occupy Wall Street (Photos)

1 Oct 2011

Occupy Wall Street

In New York City's Financial District, hundreds of activists have been converging on Lower Manhattan over the past two weeks, protesting as part of an "Occupy Wall Street" movement. The protests are largely rallies against the influence of corporate money in politics, but participants' grievances also include frustrations with corporate greed, anger at financial and social inequality, and several other issues. Nearly 80 people were arrested last weekend in a series of incidents with the New York police as the protesters attempted to march uptown. Most are now camped out in nearby Zucotti Park. Demonstrations also took place yesterday in San Francisco, and an "Occupy Boston" protest is planned for tonight, September 30. Collected here are a handful of images of the protesters occupying Wall Street from the past two weeks.

"Occupy Wall Street" protesters march and hold signs in New York City on September 17, 2011. Frustrated protesters have been speaking out against corporate greed and social inequality on and near Wall Street for the past two weeks. Original here. (CC BY SA Carwil Bjork-James)


Protesters with Occupy Wall Street march up Wall Street towards the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan, on Monday, September 26, 2011, in New York. (AP Photo/Louis Lanzano)

In the midst of protests, New York City police officers stand near barricades surrounding Charging

People protesting the economic system flood financial district sidewalks as office workers head to work on September 19, 2011 in New York City. (Michael Nagle/Getty Images)

An Occupy Wall Street protester wearing an anonymous Guy Fawkes mask holds up a sign in New York's financial district on September 17, 2011. Original here. (CC BY SA Carwil Bjork-James)

Police officers erected barricades as people protesting the economic system flooded financial district streets and sidewalks while office workers headed to work on September 19, 2011 in New York City. (Michael Nagle/Getty Images)

New York City police officers use a flexible orange net to block and pen in Occupy Wall Street demonstrators and some curious onlookers as well. Photo taken on September 25, 2011. Original here. (CC BY Paul Weiskel)

People protesting the economic system walk on a financial district sidewalk as office workers head to work on September 19, 2011 in New York City. (Michael Nagle/Getty Images)

Businessmen look at demonstrators opposed to corporate greed on a Wall Street march in the Financial District on September 26, 2011 in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Police arrest a person in New York City, during an Occupy Wall Street march, on September 25, 2011. Original here. (CC BY Paul Weiskel)

Police detain a woman in New York City, during an Occupy Wall Street march, on September 25, 2011. Original here. (CC BY Paul Weiskel)

Police arrest a man in New York City, during an Occupy Wall Street march, on September 25, 2011. The officer at right has been identified as Deputy Inspector Anthony Bologna, who appeared to have pepper-sprayed several peaceful protesters in a number of videos found on YouTube. The NYPD has launched an internal probe into the allegations. Video of the incident can be seen here. Original here. (CC BY Paul Weiskel)

Milk pours down a man's face, used to treat his eyes, which were affected by pepper spray used during an Occupy Wall Street protest on September 25, 2011, in New York City. Original here. (CC BY Paul Weiskel)

Demonstrators protesting corporate greed march from nearby Zucotti park to Wall Street amid heavy police presence, on September 20, 2011, in New York City. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Participants in the Occupy Wall Street protest set up laptop computers in New York's financial district, on September 20, 2011. Original here. (CC BY Paul Weiskel)

A reporter with Russian Television International speaks to Occupy Wall Street protesters who have camped out in New York's financial district on September 20, 2011. Original here. (CC BY Paul Weiskel)

Former New York Governor David Paterson (center) stops to talk to demonstrators from the Occupy Wall Street campaign in Zucotti Park near the financial district of New York, on September 29, 2011. (Reuters/Lucas Jackson)

A protest sleeps in Zuccotti Park in New York City on September 19, 2011, where demonstrators against the economic system have been gathering since Saturday the 17th. (Michael Nagle/Getty Images)

A reporter speaks to a video camera in front of Occupy Wall Street protesters in New York, on September 19, 2011. Original here. (CC BY Paul Weiskel)

Demonstrators gather to call for the occupation of Wall Street, Saturday, September 17, 2011, in New York City. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

An Occupy Wall Street protester speaks to New York City police officers on September 17, 2011. Original here. (CC BY SA Mike Fleshman)

Philosopher Cornel West (center) stops to talk to demonstrators from the Occupy Wall Street campaign in Zucotti Park near the financial district of New York, on September 29, 2011. (Reuters/Lucas Jackson)

A protester holds up a sign in Zuccotti Park, in New York City, on September 28 2011. Original here. (CC BY David Shankbone)

Filmmaker Michael Moore waves during a visit to the Occupy Wall Street protest in Zuccotti Park in New York, on September 26, 2011. The protesters, many of whom are camping out in the lower Manhattan plaza to speak out against corporate greed and social inequality, got a morale boost from Moore, who told the crowd they were the start of something big. (AP Photo/Stephanie Keith)

A protester from the Occupy Wall Street campaign sleeps underneath a plastic sheet in Zuccotti Park near the financial district of New York, on September 29, 2011. (Reuters/Lucas Jackson)

Morning commuters walk past Occupy Wall Street campaign protesters sleeping in Zuccotti Park, near Wall Street in New York, on September 27, 2011. (Reuters/Brendan McDermid)

Chris Parisi (center) stands with a sign in Zucotti Park during a demonstration by the Occupy Wall Street campaign near the financial district of New York, on September 29, 2011. (Reuters/Lucas Jackson)

Demonstrators opposed to corporate profits on Wall Street march in the Financial District on September 26, 2011 in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Police carry away a participant in a march organized by Occupy Wall Street in New York on Saturday September 24, 2011. (AP Photo/Tina Fineberg)

A protester with Occupy Wall Street holds up a sign and an American flag on September 26, 2011, in New York City. Original here. (CC BY Sasha Kimel)

Across the country, in San Francisco, Nick Galloro, of Berkeley, holds a sign during a rally against banking institutions as part of the Occupy Wall Street campaign in California, on September 29, 2011. (Reuters/Stephen Lam)

A group of demonstrators scuffles with a Charles Schwab employee (right) at the door during a rally against banking institutions as part of the Occupy Wall Street campaign in San Francisco, California, on September 29, 2011. (Reuters/Stephen Lam)

A group of demonstrators are detained by police inside a Chase banking center during a rally against banking institutions as part of the Occupy Wall Street campaign in San Francisco, California, on September 29, 2011. The demonstrators were later released. (Reuters/Stephen Lam)

Brenda Reed (center), speaks after being released by the police after earlier being detained while protesting inside a Chase banking center during a rally against banking institutions in San Francisco, California, on September 29, 2011. (Reuters/Stephen Lam)

A woman holds up a sign reading Compassion


Saturday, October 1, 2011

This is a German banking crisis - and they must lead the clean-up

By Damian Reece
10:01PM BST 28 Sep 2011


Berlin needs to build a new wall. A firewall around the burning building that is the Greek financial system.

Angela Merkel knows the crisis is lapping at the Bundestag's doors and breaking away from the euro would deliver a horror show without end Photo: Reuters

But everywhere Germans are apoplectic about the scale and cost of such a firewall as proposed over the weekend at the International Monetary Fund's Washington meeting and backed by the likes of the US.

German wrath will be vented on Thursday in the Bundestag but the country should remember its responsibility and duty to the single currency, having been the biggest beneficiary from its creation.

German voters, many of whom didn't want the single currency in the first place, have to accept that if anything is too big to fail, it is the euro. It's the same here, too. It may not be our currency but, boy, is it our problem.

However, Germany, as the eurozone's biggest economy, has a unique duty to do everything in its power to save the single currency and avoid an economic catastrophe that would devastate its own economy, those of its continental neighbours with whom it trades and drag ours into the mess at the same time.

The country had to pay a high price for unification. But since the advent of the single currency it has enjoyed a new leg of its post-war economic miracle.

European capital markets became deeper, more liquid and efficient, driving down the cost of capital for German companies.

Trade was boosted across the eurozone, to everyone's advantage, but particularly Germany's. The country certainly made the most of the situation, for which it cannot be blamed, but it has to accept its role in fixing the system that handed it so many advantages.

It received a huge economic boost over the years through low inflation and high productivity as the single currency delivered an enormous competitive advantage compared with where the country would have been with the deutschemark.

Just think what would have happened in recent years to the drachma, lira, escudo and punt relative to the deutschemark as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland fell into financial distress because of recession. It's true that the current crisis wouldn't exist in its present form if the euro hadn't been invented. But not having the euro wouldn't have avoided the credit boom and bust, so Europe would still have suffered a credit crunch and banking crisis.

You only have to look at the Swiss franc to see how overvalued, and uncompetitive, the German currency would have become.

The Greek deficit and German surplus are not separate issues. They are simply two faces of the same problem, two forces creating the one state of imbalance. If Berlin believes Athens should deal with its deficit through austerity, then it must compensate to rebalance the system through stimulating European-wide growth through spending or subsidy.

Stabilising the euro is also crucial for Germany because, despite the widespread state of denial there, this is a German banking crisis. It was Germany's banks that provided much of the credit to countries such as Greece in the first place, along with French banks.

Angela Merkel knows the crisis is lapping at the Bundestag's doors and breaking away from the euro would deliver a horror show without end.

No help from Germany can, or should, be unconditional. Greece and the rest must do their duty, too. But if there is to be an end to what's now unfolding it will take Germany to head the process, lead a recapitalisation of the system's banks, accept bigger losses on Greek debts and allow liquidity to flood the markets to stop its still solvent neighbours being dragged to an even worse fate.


Bank of England cannot afford to lose powers to Europe

The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) is still limbering up but its initial recommendations are pragmatic and sensible. This includes the idea that banks should lower bonuses to rebuild capital when profits fall but that regulators shouldn't exacerbate market fragility through demands to raise capital that are too onerous and simply make matters worse.

But all this pragmatism and discretion will come to nought if the UK loses regulatory sovereignty to Brussels, a threat the FPC noted at the end of its statement on Wednesday. What worries the Bank is the notion of harmonisation, where rule books are standardised to one level across Europe. We would be locked in to one, inflexible European system. Sound familiar? I thought so.

A degree of common sense broke out at mining group ENRC on Wednesday night. The priority of the new board must now be to rebuild relations with its minority shareholders and the wider City community. Its corporate governance review has bought it some time but the newly constituted board still has to prove that the right men are in the right jobs.




Via: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/8795325/This-is-a-German-banking-crisis-and-they-must-lead-the-clean-up.html

Friday, September 30, 2011

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Singapore's manufacturing output up 21.7% in August

Posted: 26 September 2011 1304 hrs

Singapore manufacturing sector

SINGAPORE: Singapore's manufacturing output expanded 21.7 per cent on a year-on-year basis in August, boosted by a surge in biomedical output.

The increase compared with a 7.6 per cent revised expansion in July, according to data released by the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

The figures showed that excluding biomedical manufacturing, output declined 10.5 per cent, worse than the 6.4 per cent contraction in July.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, manufacturing output rose 3.9 per cent in August 2011, but declined 4.7 per cent when biomedical output was excluded.

Output of the biomedical manufacturing cluster jumped 145.8 per cent on-year in August, due to a 156.7 per cent surge in pharmaceuticals output.

The strong growth in the pharmaceuticals segment was attributed to a mix of higher valued-added active pharmaceutical ingredients being produced.

Output of precision engineering cluster grew 4.1% on-year in August, while transport engineering rose 1.2 per cent. The aerospace segment expanded 5.5 per cent, with a higher volume of maintenance and upgrading work received from commercial airlines.

The chemicals cluster's output shrank 1.2 per cent on-year. EDB said the specialties segment continued to post a strong growth of 22.5 per cent on the back of new production capacities that started earlier this year.

The petroleum segment grew 8.9 per cent on-year, with throughput impacted by maintenance shutdowns. However, the other chemicals and petrochemicals segments fell 8.7 per cent and 26.1 per cent respectively.

Output of the general manufacturing cluster declined 8.0 per cent on-year in August, and the electronics cluster fell 21.9 per cent compared to the same period last year.

The weakness in the cluster was broad-based as global economics uncertainties put a drag on demand for electronics, EDB said.


Via: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1155571/1/.html

Sunday, September 25, 2011

天文学家发现星系“中央心脏”黑洞相互吞噬

发布时间:2011/9/2 13:10:08 来源:腾讯科技


核心提示:据报道,天文学家发现位于星系心脏核心位置的巨型恐怖的黑洞正在被另一个更大的黑洞吞噬。这个发现也是科学家首次了解到这个真实的现象。

模拟图像显示两个黑洞正在互相围绕旋转

  据国外媒体9月2日报道,天文学家发现位于星系心脏核心位置的巨型恐怖的黑洞正在被另一个更大的黑洞吞噬。这个发现也是科学家首次了解到这个真实的现象。而在几乎所有的大型星系中心都存在着一个巨型黑洞,其质量是太阳的数百万倍至数十亿倍不等,通过模拟星系的形成和增长的数学模型上看,星系心脏部位的黑洞也存在合并而逐渐增长的情况,通过互相吞噬变成更大的黑洞。

  科学家在此前也目睹过同等质量的大星系合并的最后阶段的情景,即大星系之间的兼并,而较小的星系之间发生兼并情况,从理论上说应该更为地普遍,因为通过相互的兼并是一种星系增大的方式。但奇怪的是,到目前为止这个现象还没有被观测到。

  在一份新的研究报告中,天文学家可能意外地发现在距离地球1.6亿光年处的NGC3393星系中,存在较小规模星系的合并情况。利用美国宇航局钱德拉X射线天文台,已经探测到该星系的中心心脏部位中存在两个黑洞,并且这两个黑顶正在发生相互吞噬的情况。这两个黑洞分别具有一百万倍和三千万倍的太阳质量,大约相互仅仅490光年。根据美国宇航局的分析表明:这同时也是距离地球最近的超大质量黑洞。

  同时,据位于马萨诸塞州哈佛大学史密森天体物理中心的天体物理学家法比亚若(Giuseppina Fabbiano)介绍:探测到这个现象完全是个较为意外的事件。而天文学家原先对这个星系进行观测,只是为了对黑洞在星系中的具体情况进行研究观测。

  而星系之间的碰撞是个较为“戏剧性”的情况,这个两个星系附近的NGC6240和MRK463星系就是通过远古时代的碰撞而产生的,并最后合并成一个较大的星系,但是,这个过程是非常缓慢的,而且星系的形状以及恒星分布都会受到影响,并且还会在核心周围产生新的恒星。相比较之下,这个新观测到的星系合并现象,算是个较为小规模的碰撞融合,但是其也具有类似银河系这样的漩涡状外形,并且在星系心脏中心附近大多是处于年老的恒星。

  通过这个研究观测,也在一定程度上支持了较小规模的星系碰撞可能并不会扰动较大星系。这同时也说明了为什么我们到目前为止还没有发现较小规模的星系合并现象,就是因为其对周围的星系够不成干扰,仅发生在一个较小的范围之内。即使我们通过可见光或者X射线的探测观测设备也较难获得这些证据。而如果星系的碰撞与黑洞的相互吞噬发生在同一时间段上,那就会极大地增强各种电磁辐射的强度,也使得其较容易被地球上的各种观测装置探测到。
Link
  而钱德拉X射线空间望远镜就可以检测到这个微小的变化,而现在,我们已经观测到了这个现象,也正在研究其中的到底发生了什么,据法比亚若介绍:两个黑洞距离如此之近,还会观测到什么现象还是个未知数。


转自: http://news.geo-show.com/201109/02/74691.shtml

Perempuan sila baca artikel ini. SANGAT Penting!

BACA! BACA! BACA! Ia mengambil masa anda hanya beberapa minit sahaja, tetapi ia dapat memberi satu amaran penting kepada anda dan sahabat-sahabat sekeliling.


Ini adalah sangat menakutkan, serupa dengan kes Ms Canny Ong. Pada suatu hari, terdapat seorang wanita yang berhenti di stesen minyak untuk mengisi minyak. Setelah selesai memenuhkan tangki minyak selepas membayar menggunakan kad kredit di pam dan ingin meninggalkan stesen tersebut, atendan di dalam kedai lantas bercakap menerusi speaker dan memberitahu sesuatu yang berlaku dengan kad itu dan meminta wanita itu masuk ke dalam untuk membayar tunai.

Wanita itu keliru kerana dia telah selesai mengisi minyak dan pembayaran menggunakan kad kredit telah diluluskan. Dia menunjukkan isyarat tangan kepada atendan tersebut dan bersiap sedia untuk meninggalkan tetapi atendan tersebut sekali lagi menggesa wanita tersebut masuk ke dalam kaunter kedai untuk membayar tunai. Dengan perasaan sedikit marah, wanita itu terus masuk ke dalam kedai dan mempertikaikan tindakan petugas tersebut dan menuduh dia menipu. Atendan tersebut memberitahu supaya wanita itu bertenang dan mendengar dengan teliti Atendan memberitahu ketika wanita tersebut sedang mengisi minyak, dia telah melihat seorang lelaki telah masuk ke dalam kereta dan bersembunyi dikerusi belakang. Dengan segera beliau telah menghubungi pihak polis. Wanita tersebut terus menjadi takut dan segera melihat pintu keretanya terbuka dan lelaki itu telah menyusup keluar dan meninggalkan kereta itu dengan tergesa-gesa.


Kes baru-baru ini didapati mempunyai kaitan dengan ujian untuk permulaan geng jenayah terbaru dimana memerlukan seseorang untuk membawa balik bahagian badan seorang wanita .. Salah satu cara yang mereka lakukan adalah dengan merangkak perlahan-lahan dan menyusup masuk ke dalam kereta wanita manakala sasaran utamanya adalah stesen minyak atau di kedai runcit pada waktu malam. Kemudian, mereka akan potong kaki / buku lali mangsa menculik mereka dan kemudiannya membunuh dan mencerai-beraikan mereka. Kaedah lain adalah dengan memaksa wanita itu masuk ke dalam kereta kemudian menculik mereka, Sila sebarkan ini kepada wanita lain, orang muda dan tua.

Pertama, wanita seharusnya lebih berhati-hati apabila ingin masuk ke dalam kereta pada waktu malam.
Kedua, Jangan letakkan kereta di tempat sunyi atau terpencil semata-mata ingin mendapatkan tempat letak kereta percuma!
Ketiga, Jika boleh, elakkan memandu seorang diri pada waktu malam! Ini adalah situasi sebenar! Penculikan! Pembunuhan! Putus dan anggota badan dicerai-ceraikan! Ini semua berlaku di Malaysia !

Jadikan amalan:
1. Pastikan kereta berkunci setiap masa walaupun anda meninggalkan kereta sebentar.
2. Periksa sekeliling kereta sebelum masuk ke dalam kereta.
3. Sentiasa peka terhadap sebarang tanda-tanda pelik dari persekitaran anda dan individu lain di dalam sekitar umum, terutama pada waktu malam!!!

Nyawa sangat harga, harus sentiasa berjaga-jaga!!!


Dari: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=291129054233987&set=a.172743942739166.45238.100000106851950&type=1&ref=nf

美联储的“扭曲操作”和QE3

作者:唐小乐日记 发表日期:2011-9-24 20:01:00


本周全世界都在等待的答案总算出来了,美联储给出的是“扭曲操作”的办法让世人大吃一惊,同时也迷惑不解,什么意思?也许时间才是最好的裁判。相对论出来的时候也没有几个人能懂,可现在呢?伯南克的深意要过一阶段才能体味的。要不,美国人不会高薪去聘个白痴的,那不是美国人的做派。
  
  本次的“扭曲操作”和QE3似乎是风马牛不相及的事情。很奇怪的事情,美国高了两次货币宽松政策可是让全世界骂的臭死,所有的过错,所有的问题都推在了美国的货币宽松政策了,万恶的美帝国主义啊。可现在美国不发第三波了,又让人骂了,什么“扭曲操作”啊,什么白痴做法啊,说什么的都有,那在这些天才的眼里应怎样做呢?很简单啊,继续印钞票啊,那么你们之前又怎么会去骂美国是世界通胀的源头呢?很奇怪。全世界从骂美联储的货币宽松到大家每一个人都仰着头等着美国人从天而降的钞票,这可是天下最滑稽的事情了。
  
  时间会证明一切的,现在已经有所显现了,大宗又跌了,石油大跌,黄金大跌,为什么啊?美联储没发钱,世界经济形势不妙,大宗卖给谁去啊?石油卖给谁去啊?黄金也不保值了,也跌了。那么伯南克到底要干什么呢?为什么做莫名其妙的事情啊?其实伯南克要的就是这个效果!前两轮的货币宽松政策,钱是印了不老少,可最终经济还是没有起来,而由于石油和大宗的疯狂上涨,美国人自己的通胀倒来了,那是一件多么得不偿失的事情。于是摆在美联储桌上的首要任务和我们一样是抗通胀,抗通胀的首先就是降低石油和大宗商品的价格,而不是我们那么不着调的去养猪、养鸡,那是市场的事情,绝不是政府应该做的事情。
  
  于是有了云里雾里的“扭曲操作”,美联储把长期的利率看低了,那么是不是意味着在美国投资的成本减少,世界的热钱包括企业就会回流到美国,重新去投资实业,这是美国的长期利益所在,哪里不着调了?但这毕竟是长期的事情,短期是不会见效的,于是全世界认为美国也无计可施了,经济下滑是不可避免的事情了,于是大宗、石油紧跟着跌了下了,殊不知这正是伯南克要的效果。但同时也带来了新的问题,美元上涨了,看看这几日美元对世界各国的主要货币都在上涨,这同样不是美国人所要的结果,因为汇率上涨了,进口就多了,出口少了,经济同样起不来。那就是说“扭曲操作”只不过是先招,美联储是必有后招的,是什么还没人知道,就像没人料到“扭曲操作”一样,但有一点QE3是必定会出来的。因为现在不管是“扭曲操作”还好还是别的什么那都不是现在的药方,那是中长期的事情。就好比现在头疼,却拿出了治脚的方案,但从长远来看这是必须的。那么美联储在等什么呢?等时机,在等最佳的时机。在等大宗、石油大跌后不可能在翻身的时候,在等全世界的经济死的差不多的时候苦苦哀求美国人多印些钞票的时候。
  
  热钱和其他国家的实业从此会慢慢的向美国转移了,美国的经济必将率先实现复苏,虽然那是要几年以后的事情,可它已经规划好了。伯南克学到了中医的精髓,那么我们的发改委呢?还在忙着约谈吗?


什么是“扭曲操作”?
所谓扭曲操作(Operation Twist),是指美联储卖出较短期的国债,买入较长期限的国债,从而延长所持国债资产的整体期限,该操作会导致长期国债价格上涨,收益率下跌。按照国际惯例,一般国债期限越长,其年利率应该越高,以吸引投资者购买,因此一国的国债收益率曲线一般是一条由下向上的曲线。而美联储扭曲操作计划的内容是,卖出短期国债,并在2012年6月底前增持4000亿美元长期国债,这将使美国国债的收益率曲线的较远端向下弯曲,所以将之称为扭曲操作。
市场分析认为,前两轮量化宽松并未起到太大作用,扭曲操作是目前唯一可取的方案,目的在于压低长期国债收益率,降低市场借贷成本,从而刺激实体经济。对此,国家信息中心经济预测部首席经济师祝宝良在接受媒体采访时表示,扭曲操作将不会对中国产生重大影响,其负面效果小于QE3。祝宝良建议中国更多购买美国短期国债,因为美联储此举将拉高这类债券的收益率。不过,如果美国长期国债收益率下跌,游资会寻找其他收益更高的资产,因此祝宝良认为,在人民币升值预期下,扭曲操作可能导致热钱加速涌入中国。


转自: http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/develop/1/847691.shtml

参考: http://money.163.com/11/0923/11/7EKOGLQK00253B0H.html

Saturday, September 24, 2011

宇宙空间某处发现神秘能量束 黑洞正吞噬恒星

2011年06月18日07:06 腾讯科技 编译Everett


天文学家发现40亿光年处天龙星座中探测到神秘能量束,该能量束被证实是由一个巨型黑洞在吞噬一颗恒星时发出的,然而这个黑洞的背后却隐藏着更大的秘密。



腾讯科技讯(编译Everett)据国外媒体报道,美国宇航局雨燕伽马射线探测器扫描天龙星座时,发现其内部出现神秘能量源,大约距离地球40亿光年,科学家将其编号为Sw 1644+57。这股神秘的能量来自黑洞的中心,这个现象让科学家感到非常奇异,后来被证实:这个黑洞正在吞噬一颗恒星!而且整个过程被天文学家目击到了,这是一个相当罕见并且非常特殊的宇宙事件,概率小到每1亿年才有可能被观测到一次。相关的数据发表在6月16日的《科学》杂志上。

天龙星座的黑洞正在吞噬一颗恒星

发现这个现象的过程还伴随着一些诡异的情节,美国宇航局雨燕伽马射线探测卫星在扫描宇宙某一深处时突然出现强烈的射线闪光,后来范围进一步缩小到天龙星座,进行详细的观测。天文学家最初认为这只是一个比较普通的伽马射线暴发,而这个伽马射线来自一个正在坍缩的恒星,恒星坍缩则是宇宙中最强的能量释放现象之一,其中也伴随着伽马射线的释放,从这个角度上解释似乎还行。但是科学家发现这次的能量集中释放居然能持续数月,所以他们意识到这其中的原因肯定不止这么简单,必然还隐藏着更加神秘的东西在起作用。

根据美国加州大学伯克利分校天文学教授Joshua Bloom的叙述:这是一个非常并且是极其不寻常的事件,到目前为止,这个能量束释放时间大约从3月24日至25日的某个时间开始,到现在已经超过两个半月了,而且还在继续释放能量,衰减的程度也很弱,从已经掌握的证据来看,虽然可以将其认定为具有部分伽马射线源释放能量的特征,但是这肯定不是个普通的伽马射线源,同时这些释放的能量之中还有其他射线。

位于天龙星座内的NGC6543星云

基于观测对象的特殊性,除了雨燕伽马射线探测卫星外,美国宇航局同时也动用了哈勃望远镜和钱德拉X射线望远镜对这个神秘的能量释放源进行探测。这种极端异常的能量释放,基本上可以确定为是一颗恒星在被超大质量黑洞吞噬的时候释放出来的,而如果将其定性为仅仅是伽马射线的暴发,却又不能完全说明问题,伽马射线暴发一般只能持续一天左右的时间,虽然也有的伽马射线暴持续的时间很长,但是这个射线的特征又不足以认定为是长伽马射线暴。这个能量释放还将在未来一段时间内持续很长的时间,这是因为在黑洞撕裂恒星的过程中,被撕扯下来的物质会在黑洞吸积盘上形成质量漩涡,就像水池放水时产生的漩涡一样,而在这个过程中,将释放大量的能量。



针对这个问题,美国宇航局进行了详细的讨论,最后得出的初步结论是:巨大的能量释放以及长时间的X射线、伽马射线的暴发均来自这颗正在被黑洞吞噬的恒星,这个颗恒星的大小和我们的太阳差不多,而撕裂它的黑洞质量比这颗恒星大至少100万倍。但是这其中又有出现了一个谜团:在宇宙中,一颗恒星被黑洞吞噬是比较正常,然而为什么这个特殊的黑洞不吞噬该区域周围的其他物质呢,并且有证据表明在该区域还存在着其他很活跃的黑洞。研究人员也筛选了这片宇宙空间的观测记录,并没有发现长时间的X射线和伽马射线暴发记录在案。也就是说,如果这个黑洞在此之前吞噬了其他物质,那就一定有X射线和伽马射线暴出现,但事实上却没有。

黑洞中心发出的神秘能量束

然而,在这个谜团的解释上,伯克利分校的Bloom教授认为:这个黑洞可能是另一类型的黑洞,它不像一般黑洞那样见到物质就大量吞噬,从迹象上看,更像是一种随机性的吞噬行为。这个事件可能发生在任何一个星系之中,但是其发生的概率非常的低,仅仅是一个偶然性事件,很可能永远都不会再发生。



基于此,天文学家对能观测到一个特殊的黑洞在进行罕见的吞噬恒星的行为,都感到十分地幸运,本来黑洞的引力足以强大到任何东西都逃不出去,但事实这颗黑洞在吞噬的过程中,X射线和伽马射线喷流在黑洞的“物质漩涡”上打了个转,朝地球方向释放。

虽然这是一个令人难以置信且有罕见的事件,但其确实能帮助天文学家进一步了解黑洞的成长。也在一定程度上明确了黑洞增长不仅仅依靠星系合并过程中黑洞的相互吞噬,这次观测到的是一个特殊的黑洞,它仅仅是依靠吞噬了周围恒星和气体维持增长,这也为黑洞的成长提供了新的方式,这很有可能改变目前对黑洞吞噬方式的看法,或许黑洞之间或者黑洞与某种物质之间还存在着更大的秘密。


转自: http://tech.qq.com/a/20110618/000039.htm